Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Staying the Course

Needless to say, it's been a difficult time to be in the arena of investments. However, not a single one of our holdings has yet had a dividend cut, and our portfolio QDV remains strong. As planned, relative performance has been outstanding, due to the portfolio's defensive tilt. We are beating the Wilshire 5000 by over 4.5% to date (Oct 2006 to today).

One regret is that during the 2007 fall we added a few too many small caps relative to the overall market weightings. They had already had a pretty hefty pullback after the summer correction. Had we not done so, the out-performance would have been more dramatic. I am particularly impressed that we have held up this well with a portfolio beta of .95.

One can never tell how big a correction there will be until it is in the rear view mirror. It helps that it is happening from a recent history of decent profits and not-excessive valuation. Certainly recessions themselves change the valuation landscape, but recessions do not last forever, and companies that can sustain dividends will emerge strong. We expect dividend growth rates to taper somewhat, but overall we think our excellent dividend growth will continue.


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Tuesday, January 1, 2008

Happy New Year!

It's been a great 2007 for our dividend growth strategy, and we're looking forward to another great year in 2008. Although we're currently expecting a modest year for stocks in general of 8-11%, we expect our total return with dividends to reach 12-15%.

If we get a recession it is obvious that goal will not be met, but we should get superior relative performance in an economic downturn.

My prediction is a flat market for the first four to six months and much stronger in the second half, but it is only a guess. Truth be told, does it really matter? If our holdings maintain a high QDV, then our performance expectations are met. If we get a recession, I expect our portfolio QDV would drop to around 15% from our current level of around 22%. Still, this is a very decent level of dividend growth.

I hope you have a happy and prosperous 2008!


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